Week 4 Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Trust the Matchup, Not the Hype
Three weeks in, we finally have enough evidence to separate a fluke from a trend. Week 4 is where PigSkinFantasy starts trusting the data… but not blindly.
START ’EM
QB Bryce Young, Panthers vs. Lions
Young cooled off last week but still threw for 291 yards. Now he gets a Detroit defense that ranks 31st against the pass and gave up 321 yards and 3 TD’s to Geno Smith last week. If you need a streamer, this pig is worth feeding.
WR Josh Downs, Colts at Commanders
Downs has established himself as Indianapolis’ primary receiving option, and his ability to work underneath should translate into plenty of targets. He faces the 27th ranked Commanders defense this week. He’s a strong WR3/FLEX play in PPR formats.
TE Darren Waller, Panthers vs. Lions
Waller has already found the end zone twice and is becoming a consistent part of the passing game. He gets a prime match up against the Lions (see Bryce Young above) that have given up the most catches, yards and touchdowns to opposing TE’s this year. The matchup gives him another opportunity to produce.
RB Aaron Jones, Vikings at Dolphins
With Jordan Mason on IR, Jones has been getting the workload fantasy managers want and Miami presents a matchup worth attacking. With Minnesota leaning on him near the goal line, Jones has legitimate RB2 upside.
SIT ’EM
RB Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. Falcons
With Travis Etienne dealing with a hamstring issue, Kamara should see increased work. But Atlanta has the best run defense in the league, allowing fewer than 14 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. Volume doesn’t always equal production.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys at Texans
Ferguson has already shown the upside, catching four passes for 43 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2. But take away the touchdowns and the picture gets considerably uglier. He caught just two passes for six yards in Week 1 and followed that up with three catches for 23 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. Ferguson is a touchdown-dependent tight end right now. If you’ve got a tight end with a more consistent target floor, this is the week to take the other pig to the trough.
WR DK Metcalf, Steelers at Browns
Metcalf remains a dangerous big-play threat, but Cleveland is a difficult matchup and his weekly target floor remains concerning. If you have a comparable option, this is a week to consider the pivot.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers vs. Packers
Egbuka has produced consistently enough to tempt fantasy managers, but Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation creates additional uncertainty. With Baker Mayfield’s status creating concern, the passing game deserves a downgrade.
PigSkinFantasy rule: Don’t chase last week’s points. Chase this week’s opportunity.
