Every fantasy football draft has players who look like great picks—but aren’t.  They are great players, but are being overdrafted.

Being “overdrafted” doesn’t mean a player will have a bad season; it means you’re paying more for his expected production than you should. The key to winning a draft isn’t simply identifying the players who will score the most points, but finding the players who will provide the most value at their draft position.

As the 2026 ADP continues to take shape, we’re seeing several players being selected based more on potential, reputation, or last year’s production than what we should realistically expect from them this season. These are the players we believe you should be willing to let someone else draft.

For each position, we’ll identify two players whose current ADP is too rich and explain why their expected production doesn’t justify the price. Because on draft day, sometimes the best pick is the player you refuse to overpay for.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey — RB

If you’ve read the Pig in a Poke series, this will come as no surprise to you. McCaffrey is currently going around RB3, behind only Gibbs and Bijan in PPR ADP.

That’s an enormous amount of confidence in a 30-year-old running back that is coming off of a 450+ touch season (including the playoffs).  

McCaffrey doesn’t need to be bad for this pick to fail. He merely needs to be less dominant than the price assumes.

At this stage, you’re paying for something close to peak McCaffrey production while carrying substantially more age and workload risk.

And this is particularly important in PPR: if the receiving workload slips even moderately, his fantasy ceiling changes dramatically.

My move: I’d rather take Cook, Brown or several WRs at the same price.

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De’Von Achane — RB

Another running back profiled in the Pig in a Poke series, and another player whose talent is not the question.

Achane has all the tools to put up great fantasy numbers and he’s currently going around RB5, roughly a first-round selection. That’s where I have the problem.

Achane’s fantasy value is heavily dependent on efficiency and explosive plays. At a first-round price, I want a player whose workload is virtually bulletproof.

Achane is currently headlining one of the worst-expected offensives of 2026.  He’s trying to replicate a 5.7 YPC average running behind an offensive line that Sharp Football Analysis ranks the 29th best line.

Achane doesn’t quite give “bulletproof”. If he gets a massive receiving workload and dominates touches, he can absolutely justify the price. But that’s already reflected in the ADP.

My move: Great player. Too expensive.