On the Outside Looking In: Jordan Mason Is Being Drafted Like Last Year Never Happened

The year-over-year dropout rate of players finishing as a WR3 or RB3 or better is highly volatile. Approximately 35%–50% of the top 36 positional finishers fail to repeat as top-36 players the following year.

While that sounds pretty bad, consider the other side of the equation: 50%–65% of them do repeat.

The crack staff here at PigskinFantasy has looked at last year’s top 36 RBs and WRs who, according to this season’s ADP, have fallen out of fantasy favor. These players were fantasy starter-worthy, at the very least as FLEX options, yet are now on the outside looking in.

But should they be?

Jordan Mason, MIN

Last year, Jordan Mason finished the season just inside the RB3 cutoff at RB36. He rushed for 748 yards and six touchdowns, averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry. He also added 14 receptions for 51 yards.

Mason began the year as the backup to Aaron Jones, but stepped into a starting role in five games Jones missed — Weeks 3 through 7 and the season finale.

In those five games, Mason ran for 376 yards and four touchdowns, averaging an even better 5.1 yards per carry. He averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game, compared to Jones’ 10.1.

That should get our attention.

Mason Was More Efficient

In the 12 games they played together, Jones averaged roughly 55% of the offensive snaps, compared to Mason’s 38%.

Jones was the primary early-down runner and nearly doubled Mason’s carries per game, averaging 11 compared to Mason’s 6.2.

Yet Mason was considerably more efficient.

Mason averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Jones averaged 4.2.

Despite the significant difference in opportunities, Mason actually finished the season with 10 more fantasy points than Jones.

Based strictly on the numbers, Mason was the more efficient runner. And apparently, Minnesota has noticed.

The Vikings have designated Mason and Jones as co-starters, opening the door for Mason to take on a significantly larger role this season.

Age and Durability Favor Mason

There are other reasons to believe Mason’s role could continue to grow.

Jones turns 32 years old this season and has missed nearly 22% of his games over the past three years. He has dealt with multiple soft-tissue injuries, and those types of injuries generally don’t become less concerning as a running back gets older.

Mason, meanwhile, is entering his prime at 27 years old and has missed less than 10% of his games over the last three seasons, with those absences coming because of ankle injuries. That’s an important distinction.

Minnesota has an older running back who has struggled with soft-tissue injuries and a younger back who has been more efficient and more durable.

If the Vikings are serious about getting the most out of their backfield, it makes sense for Mason’s workload to increase.

Follow the Goal-Line Carries

Here’s another statistic that could become extremely important for fantasy managers:

Jordan Mason out-touched Aaron Jones 29–14 in the red zone last season.

That’s more than double the red-zone touches. Touchdowns are notoriously difficult to predict from year to year, but opportunity is easier to identify.

Mason was already getting the valuable touches near the goal line. Now consider what could happen if Minnesota’s offense improves.

With Kyler Murray providing an upgrade at quarterback, the Vikings should have more opportunities to reach the red zone. More red-zone trips mean more opportunities for Mason to cash in on the work he was already receiving near the goal line.

That’s a recipe for a significant increase in touchdown production.

The Path to an RB2 Season

Everything points toward Mason having an increased role in the Vikings’ offense this season.

He’s younger.

He’s healthier.

He’s more efficient.

He gets the goal-line opportunities.

And now he’s officially been elevated to a co-starter.

If we can see the advantages Mason brings to this backfield, there’s a pretty good chance the Vikings can see them, too.

By labeling the backfield a split rather than simply handing the job to Jones, Minnesota has effectively opened the door for Mason to take control.

And that’s where things get interesting from a fantasy perspective.

The average NFL team runs the ball approximately 26 times per game. If Mason emerges as the 1A and takes on the majority of the early-down work, as many expect, he could see approximately 220 carries this season — about 13 per game.

At his career 4.8 yards-per-carry average, 220 carries would produce approximately 1,050 rushing yards.

Add in the red-zone opportunities and a Minnesota offense that should have plenty of chances to score, and 8–10 touchdowns is a reasonable projection.

Put those numbers together and you’re looking at an RB2.

The ADP Makes No Sense

Here’s the part that makes Mason so interesting. We’re not asking him to become a completely different player. We’re asking him to do more of what he’s already done.

He already finished as an RB3. He already demonstrated that he can produce when given a larger workload. He already averaged 4.8 yards per carry. He already outscored Jones despite receiving significantly fewer opportunities. He already received more than twice as many red-zone touches as Jones.

And now he’s entering the season with a larger projected role.

Yet according to FantasyPros Real Time ADP, Mason is currently being drafted as an RB4.

That’s the definition of a player being overlooked. The question isn’t whether Jordan Mason is guaranteed to finish as an RB2. He isn’t.

The question is whether an RB4 price (RB37) adequately reflects the possibility that he could become the lead back in Minnesota. It doesn’t.

Mason doesn’t need to dominate this backfield to beat his ADP. He simply needs to receive the additional opportunities that his efficiency, age, health and red-zone usage suggest he deserves.

Fantasy managers have already seen what Mason can do.

Now they’re getting a chance to draft him as though they haven’t.