Against the Grain: Three Fantasy Football Calls the Experts Have Wrong
Every week fantasy “experts” post their calls. They tell you who is overvalued and undervalued. They let you know the over-hyped and the under-hyped. They give you the waiver wire darlings and the time to drops.
But how accurate are they? How often do you go back and check what they got right and what they got wrong? Our guess? Hardly ever. You’re too busy reading their current articles trying to get ready for the week ahead.
What if someone would do the leg work for you? What if someone was very familiar with last week’s picks and could tell you exactly how close they were to getting it right or how far from the target they were? Well it’s your lucky day. We’re intimately familiar with last weeks “Against the Grain” picks because we made them: https://pigskinfantasy.com/fantasy-football-picks-experts-have-wrong/
So we’ll do the work here for you, you can thank us later, and let you know what we got wrong, what we got right and what we were in the ballpark on.
What We Got Wrong
Dak Prescott: Prescott was projected to finish between QB7 and QB8 last week. We warned you off of him, pointing out his increasing interceptions and his lack of touchdowns. He went out and threw 3 TD’s, no interceptions and finished as QB6. I’m sure we weren’t the only ones that didn’t see an Eagles D collapse coming, but we may have been the only ones to push the pause button on his projected success. Our apologies.
What We Got Right
Brock Bowers: Brock Bowers was, generally, projected to finish as TE1 last week. We warned that his targets had fallen for four weeks in a row and that the Rams were playing particularly tough against tight ends. Bowers saw his targets drop for the fifth week in a row to eight. He was held to 13.3 fantasy points and finished as TE11. Certainly startable, but not the production most predicted.
Christian Watson: Most of the fantasy community had Watson ranked right around WR6 last week. We pointed out his outputs had been volatile and a lot of his production relied on high-value plays. Our take away included, “Start him if you need the upside, but don’t mistake a favorable matchup for a guaranteed WR1 finish”. He, technically, finished Week 7 as a WR3. His 10.7 fantasy points landed him at WR25. You are welcome.
This Week’s Contrarian Plays
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Consensus expectation: Another strong RB1 performance.
Our call: The matchup could turn an elite talent into an ordinary fantasy starter.
Jonathan Taylor is the kind of running back fantasy managers rarely consider benching. He’s explosive, capable of breaking long runs, and normally receives enough work to overcome a difficult matchup.
But Week 8 presents a different challenge. Taylor faces the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been one of the NFL’s toughest defenses against opposing running backs. Despite that, FantasyPros consensus rankings place Taylor at RB9 for the week, keeping him firmly in RB1 territory.
Here’s why we’re pumping the brakes.
1. Jacksonville is suffocating opposing running games.
The Jaguars are allowing just 2.97 yards per rushing attempt to running backs, the lowest mark in the league. They have also surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to the position.
That’s a serious problem for a running back whose biggest fantasy advantage is his ability to turn a heavy workload into explosive production.
Taylor can certainly break through against a defense like this. But expecting him to do so simply because he’s Jonathan Taylor is not a strategy—it’s wishful thinking wearing a Colts jersey.
2. Indianapolis has lost important pieces up front.
The Colts traded star guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle, weakening an offensive line that already faces a difficult assignment against Jacksonville.
The Colts are also coming off a three-game losing streak and managed just 10 points in Week 7.
When an offense struggles to sustain drives and its run blocking takes a hit, even an elite running back can find himself fighting for every yard.
3. The game script could work against him.
Indianapolis enters this matchup as a 10-point underdog, with an implied team total of just 18.25 points. That creates a real possibility that the Colts will have to abandon the running game if Jacksonville builds an early lead.
Taylor’s receiving ability gives him some protection against a negative game script, but fewer rushing opportunities would make a massive fantasy performance harder to achieve.
The PigSkinFantasy verdict
We’re not suggesting you automatically bench Taylor. He’s too talented, and his workload is too valuable.
But RB9 expectations may be too optimistic when his offensive line is weakened, his team is struggling, and his opponent is allowing fewer than three yards per carry to running backs.
Start him if he’s your best option. Just don’t be surprised if Jacksonville turns a potential fantasy feast into a long afternoon of three-yard runs.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Consensus expectation: A productive afternoon from one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks.
Our call: This is the week Goff’s excellent season could hit a serious speed bump.
Goff has been outstanding in 2026. He’s the QB3 in fantasy points per game and ranks among the league’s most efficient passers in yards per attempt, passing touchdown rate, and passing success rate.
So why are we concerned?
Because Goff is about to face a Minnesota defense that has made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks.
1. Minnesota is shutting down opposing passing games.
The Vikings have allowed just 7.58 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, according to NFL.com’s Week 8 analysis. Minnesota also leads the league in several important defensive metrics, including pressure rate, passing success rate allowed, and expected points added per dropback.
Even more impressive, Minnesota has allowed only one passing touchdown since Jordan Love threw two against the Vikings in Week 1.
That’s not merely a difficult matchup. That’s a defense making opposing quarterbacks reconsider their career choices.
2. Minnesota’s pressure could disrupt Goff’s timing.
The Vikings have generated pressure on 48.8% of opposing dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL, according to NFL.com’s analysis.
Goff is at his best when he can operate from a clean pocket, read the defense, and deliver the football on schedule. Pressure disrupts that process, forcing hurried throws and limiting opportunities for receivers to develop downfield.
Goff has handled pressure reasonably well this season, so we’re not assuming he’ll suddenly forget how to play quarterback. But facing the league’s most aggressive defense is a different test from facing an ordinary pass rush.
The PigSkinFantasy verdict
Goff has played too well to be treated as an automatic benching, and his chemistry with Detroit’s receivers gives him legitimate upside.
But this matchup deserves respect.
Our recommendation: If you have another capable quarterback with a more favorable matchup, consider using him over Goff this week. Minnesota’s pressure and touchdown prevention make a top-five finish considerably less appealing to bet on.
If Goff is your only viable starter, keep him in your lineup. Just don’t assume the Vikings will cooperate with his perfect fantasy scoring streak.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Consensus expectation: A productive follow-up to his monster Week 7 performance.
Our call: Don’t let one spectacular Sunday erase six weeks of evidence.
Pollard gave fantasy managers a memorable performance in Week 7, rushing 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns while adding three catches for 26 receiving yards. It was the kind of afternoon that can single-handedly win a fantasy matchup.
Naturally, managers are wondering whether he’s finally found his groove. We’re not convinced.
1. His Week 7 explosion was an outlier.
Before facing Cleveland, Pollard had four games with fewer than eight fantasy points and had not exceeded 13.6 points in any game. His three-touchdown performance accounted for approximately 41.5% of his season fantasy production.
That’s a massive concentration of production in one game.
Pollard deserves credit for taking advantage of his opportunities. But three touchdowns in a single afternoon are difficult to replicate, particularly for a running back who had scored just once on the ground before that game.
The danger is projecting last week’s ceiling as though it were his new baseline.
2. Cincinnati presents a tougher rushing matchup.
Pollard faces the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. Pro Football Network’s matchup analysis reports that Cincinnati has allowed just 17.9 PPR points per game to running backs, the fourth-fewest in the league.
That is a substantial difference from the Cleveland matchup in which Pollard exploded.
The Bengals have been much more vulnerable through the air, which could make it difficult for Pollard to generate the kind of rushing production he delivered last week.
3. His receiving involvement doesn’t provide much of a safety net.
Pollard averaged just 2.1 targets per game entering the Cleveland matchup.
That matters because receiving production can help running backs remain fantasy-relevant when their rushing efficiency or touchdown opportunities decline.
If Pollard doesn’t score against Cincinnati, his fantasy value will depend heavily on rushing volume and yardage. That’s a less comfortable proposition against a defense that has limited opposing running backs.
4. Tennessee could be forced into a difficult game script.
Cincinnati enters the matchup at 4-2, while Tennessee is 1-6. The Bengals have demonstrated the ability to compete offensively, creating the possibility that Tennessee will need to throw more than it would prefer.
If the Titans fall behind, Pollard could lose some of his most valuable opportunities: carries to close out drives and grind down the clock.
His workload should keep him relevant, but a repeat of his three-touchdown performance is far from guaranteed.
The PigSkinFantasy verdict
Pollard is being projected around RB18. That would put him firmly in the middle of the RB2 range. In his 7 games this season, Pollard has finished higher than RB24 two times.
His 129 rushing yards and three touchdowns last week were impressive. However, the four sub-eight-point performances before that explosion, his limited receiving involvement, and Cincinnati’s strong fantasy defense against running backs all argue for caution.
Our recommendation: Start Pollard if your roster needs him, but expect him to finish closer to his season average before his Week 7 explosion: RB43. A solid workload and a modest fantasy score are much more plausible outcomes than another three-touchdown afternoon.
One Comment