Against the Grain: Three Fantasy Football Calls the Experts Have Wrong
Every week fantasy “experts” post their calls. They tell you who is overvalued and undervalued. They let you know the over-hyped and the under-hyped. They give you the waiver wire darlings and the time to drops.
But how accurate are these fantasy football expert rankings? How often do you go back and check what they got right and what they got wrong? Our guess? Hardly ever. You’re too busy reading their current articles trying to get ready for the week ahead.
What if someone would do the leg work for you? What if someone was very familiar with last week’s picks and could tell you exactly how close they were to getting it right or how far from the target they were? Well it’s your lucky day. We’re intimately familiar with last weeks “Against the Grain” picks because we made them:
https://pigskinfantasy.com/against-the-grain-three-fantasy-football-calls-the-experts-have-wrong/
So we’ll do the work here for you, you can thank us later, and let you know what we got wrong, what we got right and what we were in the ballpark on.
First, let’s take a look at last week:
What We Got Wrong
Tony Pollard: We got that one wrong. Way wrong. After finishing as RB1 with 36.5 PPR points in Week 7, we warned against jumping on the Tony Train. We pointed out that in half his games this year he’d scored less than 8 fantasy points. We cautioned that his 3 TD performance from Week 7 was extremely difficult to replicate. He then went out and promptly had 24 touches for 122 yards and 2 TD’s. That left him with a RB4 finish.
However we will confidently state, and 100% guarantee, that Pollard will not finish in the top 24 RB’s this week.
What We Got Right
Jonathan Taylor: As wrong as we were about Pollard we were equally right about Jonathan Taylor. Most fantasy sites had Taylor set as a top half RB1. We warned that the Jaguars defense, averaging less than 3 yards per carry to opposing running backs, was not to be trifled with. We pointed out the loss of Quenton Nelson would weaken an already shaky Indianapolis O-line. And we predicted that the game script would work against the Colts as they were likely to fall behind and be forced to pass. Taylor finished the day with 12 touches and 57 total yards: a RB34 finish.
Jared Goff: Goff, operating on the season as QB3 in fantasy points, was projected by most sites to finish as a QB1. We weren’t as high, cautioning that the Vikings defense was allowing opposing QB’s less than 8 fantasy points per game and had not allowed a passing TD since Week 1. We explained the their top ranked pass pressure would disrupt the pocket and force Goff to make throws that did not emphasize his strengths. It looks like we were right. Goff threw for 176 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Giving him a QB23 finish.
This week’s Contrarian Picks:
1. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
The Rookie’s Workload May Be Disappearing
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
Our call: Temper expectations
Jeanty is still being started in 94% of Sleeper leagues, but there’s a significant reason to question whether he’ll deliver RB1 production against San Francisco.
Jeanty has been one of the more exciting young running backs in fantasy football, but his workload situation took an unexpected turn in Week 8.
1. Mike Washington Jr. is eating into his opportunities.
Against the Jets, Washington received 25 carries and led the Raiders’ backfield in both touches and offensive snaps. That’s not a minor change in the rotation. It’s a potential changing of the guard.
Jeanty has been the preferred fantasy option, but Washington’s emergence creates legitimate uncertainty about how many opportunities Jeanty will receive going forward.
2. San Francisco presents a difficult challenge.
The 49ers are Jeanty’s Week 9 opponent, and the possibility of a shared backfield makes an already difficult matchup more concerning. If Washington continues receiving the bulk of the rushing work, Jeanty could struggle to accumulate enough touches to justify his fantasy ranking.
3. Fantasy managers may be paying for the name rather than the workload.
A 94% start rate suggests managers aren’t ready to abandon Jeanty. That’s understandable. But fantasy points come from opportunities, not draft capital or rookie hype.
PigSkinFantasy verdict: Jeanty is still talented enough to produce with limited opportunities, but we’re concerned about his workload. Until he reestablishes himself as the Raiders’ lead back, treating him as an automatic RB1/2 is dangerous. Washington may be the back to own in Las Vegas.
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Name Is Healthy Enough to Start. Is the Player?
Our call: Beware the limited workload
Barkley is an extremely difficult player to leave on the bench, particularly when facing his former team. But his recent playing time suggests fantasy managers should be cautious.
The Week 9 matchup against the New York Giants has plenty of sentimental appeal. Barkley returning to face his former team sounds like the perfect opportunity for a revenge performance.
Unfortunately, fantasy football doesn’t award bonus points for revenge narratives.
1. His playing time has fallen dramatically.
Barkley has played just 32 offensive snaps over his last two games, representing only 24% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps during that stretch. That’s a troubling number for a running back expected to produce like an elite RB1.
When a running back isn’t consistently on the field, his opportunities to accumulate rushing yards, catch passes, and score touchdowns are naturally reduced.
2. His health remains a concern.
The limited playing time is especially concerning because it suggests Barkley isn’t operating at full capacity. He has a lingering hamstring injury since week 4 and then injured his back against the Cowboys in week 7. Philadelphia has been managing his workload, and there’s little reason to assume the Eagles will suddenly give him 20-plus touches simply because the opponent is New York.
3. Fantasy managers are buying the matchup instead of the workload.
The Giants matchup looks appealing, and Barkley’s history makes him an enticing start. But a favorable matchup cannot compensate for a running back who isn’t getting enough snaps.
A player who receives 15 touches against a good defense can easily outperform a player who receives six touches against a bad one.
PigSkinFantasy verdict: Barkley is a difficult benching decision because his upside remains enormous. However, until his snap count improves, we’re not treating him as an automatic RB1/2. If you have another healthy running back with a secure workload, this might be the week to consider the alternative.
3. Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Don’t Let One Monster Game Fool You
Our call: Don’t chase last week’s points
Wilson is coming off the best fantasy performance of his season, scoring 26.8 fantasy points against Dallas. That performance has understandably generated excitement, but his Week 9 matchup is a completely different story.
Wilson faces Seattle, and the Seahawks have been particularly difficult on opposing wide receivers.
1. Seattle is a nightmare matchup for perimeter receivers.
The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers. More importantly, no defense has allowed fewer receiving fantasy points per game to wide receivers regardless of alignment.
That’s not the kind of matchup where fantasy managers should automatically expect another 100-yard performance.
Particularly because in their Week 2 match up, the Seahawks limited Wilson to 2 catches for 18 yards on 7 targets.
2. Last week’s explosion could create unrealistic expectations.
Wilson’s 26.8-point performance against Dallas was a season high. That’s precisely why fantasy managers need to be careful. Especially because the Cowboys pass D couldn’t cover the bill at a free buffet.
One huge performance can dramatically change expectations, particularly for a player who hasn’t consistently produced at that level.
3. Seattle can take away the easy production.
Wilson’s ability to make plays downfield is an important part of his fantasy appeal. But Seattle’s coverage has limited opposing receivers’ ability to generate consistent production.
If the Seahawks force Arizona to work underneath and make Wilson earn every reception, his chances of repeating last week’s performance diminish considerably.
PigSkinFantasy verdict: Wilson deserves credit for his excellent Week 8 performance, but we’re not expecting a repeat. He’s a reasonable flex option, but fantasy managers should consider alternatives if they have receivers with better matchups and more consistent production.
The Final Whistle: Don’t Chase Yesterday’s Fantasy Points
Week 9 offers three excellent reminders that fantasy football is about more than player reputation and last week’s box scores.
The common theme is opportunity.
Jeanty may be losing touches. Barkley isn’t getting enough snaps. Wilson faces a defense that can make life miserable for opposing receivers.
None of these players is guaranteed to disappoint. That’s not the point. The point is that fantasy managers need to recognize when the circumstances surrounding a player have changed.
Don’t pay for last week’s production. Don’t assume a big name guarantees a big game. And whatever you do, don’t blindly follow the herd.
PigSkinFantasy.com — Trust the numbers and question the hype.
