Against the Grain: Three Fantasy Football Calls the Experts Have Wrong
Every week fantasy “experts” post their calls. They tell you who is overvalued and undervalued. They let you know the over-hyped and the under-hyped. They give you the waiver wire darlings and the time to drops.
But how accurate are they? How often do you go back and check what they got right and what they got wrong? Our guess? Hardly ever. You’re too busy reading their current articles trying to get ready for the week ahead.
What if someone would do the leg work for you? What if someone was very familiar with last week’s picks and could tell you exactly how close they were to getting it right or how far from the target they were? Well it’s your lucky day. We’re intimately familiar with last weeks “Against the Grain” picks because we made them: https://pigskinfantasy.com/three-calls-we-disagree-with-consensus-on/
So we’ll do the work here for you, you can thank us later, and let you know what we got wrong, what we got right and what we were in the ballpark on.
What We Got Wrong
Trevor Lawrence: Technically we didn’t get this one wrong. We got it WAY wrong. We said, “Lawrence remains a viable starter in two-quarterback leagues, but we’re not treating him as a must-start QB1”. He ended last week as QB1. That’s about as “must-start” as you can get. To our credit, he did surpass his average fantasy points by almost 15. Who knew? Not us.
What We Got Right
Josh Downs: The average rankings last week had him around WR22. We warned that people should “pump the brakes” and consider his low target share (14%) and lack of significant production (6/63 over the last two games). Downs was good for 8.7 fantasy points and a WR42 finish. Maybe we should have told you to “slam on the brakes”.
What we got “meh”
Ashton Jeanty: Last week the consensus had Jeanty as a top 12 RB. We warned people off that with this nugget, “He’s fallen short of his ESPN PPR projection in four of five contests, and his huge Week 1 performance (20.7 PPR points) is doing plenty of heavy lifting in his fantasy reputation”. While Jeanty did end the week within the consensus projections at RB12, last week was a low scoring week for RB’s in general. His 15.8 points would have put him outside the top 12 in any other week. So while we got the ranking wrong, we had his output more or less correct.
This Week’s Contrarian Plays
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott is coming off a disappointing Week 6, and the fantasy community still expects him to rebound against Philadelphia. The projection models have him around QB7–QB8, with roughly 18–19 fantasy points expected.
Why Dak Could Disappoint
1. The interceptions are piling up.
Prescott threw two interceptions in each of his last two games, against Tampa Bay and Green Bay. He’s now thrown five interceptions through six games. Those turnovers can erase the value of otherwise productive passing yardage.
2. The touchdown production hasn’t matched the yardage.
Prescott is averaging 273.2 passing yards per game, but only 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. He’s thrown for at least 258 yards in each of his last five games, yet scored just one passing touchdown in each of his last four. That’s a lot of yardage without the multi-touchdown ceiling fantasy managers want.
3. Philadelphia could make him work for every point.
The Eagles have allowed 253.8 passing yards and 1.33 passing touchdowns per game, according to the current matchup data. That’s not an impossible matchup, but it isn’t an obvious green light for a huge fantasy performance, either.
4. Recent performance
Prescott hasn’t surpassed 14.6 fantasy points in his last two games. He has 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s in his last two games. He’s ended the last two weeks as a low end QB2.
Pigskin Fantasy Verdict:
Prescott has the passing volume to produce a good fantasy day, and his recent yardage totals make him difficult to bench. But five interceptions, just one passing touchdown in each of his last four games, and a divisional matchup against Philadelphia make a top-eight finish less certain than his QB7–QB8 projection suggests.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Yeah, we know. This might be a tough one to swallow. But the matchup is the problem.
FantasyPros ranks Bowers first among tight ends for Week 7, projecting 17.5 PPR points. But the Los Angeles Rams have been exceptionally stingy against the position.
Bowers has averaged 95.5 receiving yards per game, making him one of the league’s most productive tight ends. Yet his recent usage raises a warning flag: his targets have fallen in four consecutive games, from 13 to 11, then 10 and nine.
The Rams have allowed just 29.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends and only 4.16 yards per target, according to the Week 7 FantasyPros analysis.
Bowers is also receiving more competition from fellow TE Michael Mayer. In two of the last three games, Mayer has had more catches and more yards than Bowers.
That’s a difficult combination: a potentially declining target count against a defense that makes tight end production unusually hard to come by, coupled with increased competition for targets.
Pigskin Fantasy Verdict:
Bowers is still a must-start in most leagues. But if you’re expecting another 90-yard performance, slow your roll. The Rams have the personnel and defensive scheme to make him work for every catch.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers:
Christian Watson is being treated like a must-start superstar this week. FantasyPros ranks him WR6 against Detroit, a defense that has struggled to contain opposing passing games. We’re not convinced the matchup guarantees another monster performance.
Watson caught just three passes for 64 yards on eight targets against Dallas in Week 6. He also dropped a potential 30-yard touchdown. That near-miss is encouraging, but fantasy points aren’t awarded for almost making the play.
The bigger concern is volatility. Watson has shown a massive ceiling, but his recent results have swung from 143 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago to just 47 yards against Tampa Bay and 64 yards against Dallas. He’s a dangerous deep threat, but that also means his fantasy production can depend heavily on a handful of high-value plays.
There’s also an ankle injury to monitor, although Green Bay’s head coach has indicated he expects Watson to play.
PigSkinFantasy call: Watson is absolutely capable of another explosive game, but a WR6 ranking assumes a lot goes right. Start him if you need the upside, but don’t mistake a favorable matchup for a guaranteed WR1 finish.
