Pigs at the Trough: The WRs Going Too Early in Fantasy Drafts
Every fantasy football draft has players who look like great picks—but aren’t. They are great players, but are being overdrafted. Being “overdrafted” doesn’t mean a player will have a bad season; it means you’re paying more for his expected production than you should. The key to winning a draft isn’t simply identifying the players who will score the most points, but finding the players who will provide the most value at their draft position.
As the 2026 ADP continues to take shape, we’re seeing several players being selected based more on potential, reputation, or last year’s production than what we should realistically expect from them this season. These are the players we believe you should be willing to let someone else draft. For each position, we’ll identify two players whose current ADP is too rich and explain why their expected production doesn’t justify the price. Because on draft day, sometimes the best pick is the player you refuse to overpay for.
A look at a couple of WR to think about before you pull the trigger:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a perfect example of a player who can be both an excellent NFL receiver and an overdrafted fantasy player. There is no denying what he accomplished in 2025: 119 receptions, 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns on 163 targets, finishing second among wide receivers in PPR scoring and earning NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors.
The problem is that fantasy managers are now paying an early to mid first-round price for that production. JSN is currently being drafted around as early as 5th overall and as the WR3, meaning the market isn’t simply expecting another good season—it is expecting another elite season. That’s a difficult price to justify when even a relatively modest regression in targets, yards or touchdowns could knock him out of the range you’re paying for.
Smith-Njigba should remain Seattle’s No. 1 receiving option, and there’s certainly a path to another monster season. But that’s already built into his ADP. The question isn’t whether JSN will be good; it’s whether he can be good enough to justify being drafted ahead of established stars such as Amon Ra-St. Brown and other first-round options. At his current price, you’re not drafting the player who could become an elite receiver—you’re paying full price for the player he became last year.
That’s exactly what makes JSN a PigSkinFantasy overdraft: the breakout wasn’t the mistake. Paying the breakout price one year later might be.
Emeka Egbuka — WR
Emeka Egbuka is an interesting overdraft candidate because the argument isn’t that he isn’t talented—it’s that his 2026 price assumes a much bigger leap than his rookie season actually demonstrated. Egbuka finished 2025 with 63 receptions for 938 yards and six touchdowns, but his season was essentially a tale of two halves. After averaging 16.1 PPR points per game over his first nine games, he averaged just 6.1 over the final portion of the season.
Egbuka didn’t simply cool off late in the season. His production essentially collapsed after Week 10. His 2025 numbers look impressive on the surface, but 47 of his 63 receptions, 675 of his 938 yards and all six of his touchdowns came before the sustained second-half decline.
The departure of Mike Evans creates an obvious opportunity, and Egbuka is a logical candidate to lead Tampa Bay in targets. But Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and rookie Ted Hurst are still competing for targets, so Evans’ departure doesn’t automatically turn Egbuka into a 100-catch receiver. More importantly, Egbuka is currently being drafted around WR17-19 and in the third round, while his current consensus ranking is closer to WR21.
Egbuka could absolutely have a breakout season in 2026. The problem is that fantasy managers are already drafting him as though the breakout is guaranteed. At a third-round price, you’re no longer drafting the player who produced 938 yards as a rookie; you’re drafting the player you expect him to become. That’s precisely the kind of optimism PigSkinFantasy is willing to fade.