Week 1 Sleepers: Four Players Who Could Smash Their Rankings
Every Fantasy manager loves a week 1 sleeper. You know the type: the guy buried down around WR40 or RB35 who suddenly finds himself sitting in the end zone on Sunday afternoon while you’re staring at your bench wondering why you didn’t see it coming.
Week 1 is particularly fertile ground for these kinds of players. Rankings are based heavily on preseason expectations, previous production and projected roles. But once the games begin, opportunity is king.
Here are four players who are being ranked well below their potential Week 1 fantasy outcomes.
1. Wan’Dale Robinson — WR, Titans
Current Week 1 ranking: roughly WR41
Robinson is moving from the Giants to Tennessee and immediately steps into a potentially significant role in Brian Daboll’s offense. He’s expected to be one of Cam Ward’s reliable underneath targets, and the Titans’ receiver hierarchy is anything but settled.
The matchup with the Jets is also interesting.
Robinson doesn’t need a 100-yard receiving game to pay off in PPR. If he catches 7-9 passes for 60-80 yards, he’s already flirting with a very useful fantasy day. And if Tennessee falls behind, his short-area role could explode.
Why he could have a big day:
- Potentially high target volume
- PPR-friendly skill set
- New offense specifically designed by Daboll
- Jets could force Tennessee into more passing
- Current ranking doesn’t reflect his potential target share
My Week 1 range: 12-18 PPR points.
2. Josh Downs — WR, Indianapolis Colts
Current Week 1 ranking: around WR45
Josh Downs might be one of the easiest players to overlook in the Week 1 rankings.
That’s probably because he’s not the kind of receiver who jumps off the page with eye-popping size, speed or touchdown totals. But fantasy football isn’t a beauty contest. It’s about getting the ball into a player’s hands.
And Downs has already shown he can do that.
With Michael Pittman no longer in Indianapolis, there is an opportunity for Downs to take on a much larger role in the Colts’ passing game. He’s an excellent route runner, consistently finds soft spots in coverage and has demonstrated an ability to earn targets when he’s on the field.
In fact, Downs ranked 20th among wide receivers in targets per route run last season.
That’s a statistic worth paying attention to.
The Colts open against Baltimore, a defense that ranked 30th in the NFL in pass defense last season, allowing 248 passing yards per game. If the Ravens’ offense puts points on the board, Indianapolis could find itself throwing more than it would prefer.
That could be exactly what Downs needs.
The best part about his potential Week 1 breakout isn’t the possibility of one enormous play. It’s the possibility of volume. Downs can pile up receptions on underneath and intermediate routes, and in PPR scoring, six or seven catches can turn an otherwise ordinary receiving day into a very useful fantasy performance.
And if those targets come with a touchdown or a few extra yards after the catch, we’re suddenly looking at a player who could finish considerably higher than his WR45 ranking.
Why He Could Have a Big Day
- Michael Pittman’s departure creates additional target opportunity
- Proven ability to earn targets
- Ranked 20th among WRs in targets per route run last season
- Baltimore allowed 248 passing yards per game last season
- Indianapolis could be forced into a pass-heavy game script
- His reception-heavy profile is particularly valuable in PPR
My Week 1 range: 10-17 PPR points
3. R.J. Harvey — RB, Broncos
Current Week 1 ranking: As an RB3 in the 32-36 range
This is one where PPR scoring matters enormously.
J.K. Dobbins is expected to be Denver’s primary early-down runner, but Harvey is expected to handle the passing-down role. Harvey finished sixth among RBs in target-per-route-run rate and should be heavily involved as a receiver.
Denver plays Kansas City, which could create exactly the game script Harvey needs. With Bo Nix playing in his first game since his injury and facing a fierce Chiefs defense, he will need to rely on a quick passing game which benefits Harvey’s target share.
Why he could have a big day:
- Passing-down role
- Excellent receiving efficiency
- Kansas City matchup isn’t frightening for RB receiving production
- Denver may need to throw
- One receiving TD could turn him into a top-10 RB
My Week 1 range: 12-18 PPR points.
4. Alec Pierce — WR, Colts
Current ranking: around post WR50
Pierce is being overlooked partly because he’s coming off ankle surgery and missed the preseason. However, he is expected to play in the opener.
And don’t forget what he did last year:
47 catches, 1,003 yards and six TDs.
He averaged 21.3 yards per catch, leading the NFL for the second consecutive season.
That’s an absolutely ridiculous big-play profile.
Indianapolis plays Baltimore, a matchup that could force Daniel Jones to push the ball downfield.
The risk is obvious: Pierce’s practice availability and snap count. But if he’s full go?
Five catches for 100 yards and a TD is completely within his range of outcomes.