Pigs at the Trough: The QBs Going Too Early in Fantasy Drafts
Every fantasy football draft has players who look like great picks—but aren’t. They are great players, but are being overdrafted. Being “overdrafted” doesn’t mean a player will have a bad season; it means you’re paying more for his expected production than you should. The key to winning a draft isn’t simply identifying the players who will score the most points, but finding the players who will provide the most value at their draft position. As the 2026 ADP continues to take shape, we’re seeing several players being selected based more on potential, reputation, or last year’s production than what we should realistically expect from them this season. These are the players we believe you should be willing to let someone else draft. For each position, we’ll identify two players whose current ADP is too rich and explain why their expected production doesn’t justify the price.
Because on draft day, sometimes the best pick is the player you refuse to overpay for.
First up, Quarterbacks:
Lamar Jackson — QB
This is probably the easiest QB to fade.
Jackson is being drafted as the second quarterback, around the early third round. Current consensus ADP has Josh Allen first, Jackson second and Drake Maye third.
The problem isn’t Jackson’s talent. It’s what you’re paying for.
At that price, you’re essentially betting on another season in which Jackson combines elite passing efficiency with enormous rushing production. That’s an extremely high bar.
Especially after last year’s performance. Jackson missed four games and left two games early. If you take his points per game from the 11 contests he played, he averaged 20.8 points per game. That places him as QB5.
In his 8 seasons he’s finished as QB2 or higher once. Why are you betting a third round pick that he’ll do it again?
Quarterback is deep enough that I don’t want to spend a third-round pick chasing a relatively narrow range of outcomes.
My move: Let someone else pay the Lamar tax.
Drake Maye — QB
Maye is the quarterback I’m most uncomfortable with relative to his current price.
He’s currently being drafted around QB3 and 54th overall.
That’s a tremendous amount of draft capital for a quarterback who has only one full season of NFL production. While Maye looked like a sure thing last year, he does not have the resume to support drafting him that early. Does anyone remember Rick Mirer or Vince Young?
Make no mistake, I like Maye. I just don’t like QB3 pricing.
The difference between QB3 and QB7 could be relatively small, while the difference between a fifth-round pick and a seventh/eighth-round pick is significant.
Based on standard consensus projections, Drake Maye (QB3) is projected to score just over 320 fantasy points, while Caleb Williams (QB7) is projected to score 301 fantasy points. Drafting Maye in the fifth is giving you a 1.3 point per game advantage.
Yet, by drafting Maye you are passing on the likes of Davante Adams, Terry McClaurin and DJ Moore.
Recent fantasy analysis is making the same general point: quarterback is deep enough that paying premium prices for Maye, Lamar or other elite QBs can create opportunity-cost problems.
My move: Wait and take the cheaper QB.