Pig in a Poke: Is De’Von Achane Worth the First-Round Price?

De’Von Achane is one of the most exciting players in fantasy football.

He is fast. He is explosive. And when he gets into the open field, there may not be another running back in the NFL who can turn a five-yard gain into a 50-yard touchdown quicker.

So why may Achane be a Pig in a Poke?

Because fantasy managers are being asked to pay for the absolute best-case version of De’Von Achane. And there are several reasons to believe that version of Achane will not be the one you see.

The Problem With the Production

Let’s start by acknowledging the obvious: Achane is good. Really good.

In 2025, Achane rushed for 1,350 yards on 238 carries, averaging an incredible 5.7 yards per carry. He also caught 67 passes for 488 yards and scored 12 total touchdowns in 16 games.

That’s exactly the kind of production that makes fantasy managers want to draft him early. But here’s the problem:

You’re not drafting last year’s De’Von Achane. You’re drafting the expectation that he will do it again. And that’s where things get interesting.

The 300-Touch Problem

The Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey articles in this series focused heavily on workload.

Achane presents a different version of the same problem. He hasn’t accumulated the massive career workload that Taylor or McCaffrey had when they became Pig in a Poke candidates.

Instead, the concern is what happens when an explosive, undersized running back begins carrying a true feature-back workload.

Achane has already gone from 103 carries as a rookie, to 203 in 2024, to 238 in 2025. His receiving workload has also been significant. He caught 78 passes in 2024 and another 67 in 2025.

He’s had over 700 touches in his first three seasons when rushing attempts and receptions are combined and the numbers are increasing.

The trend is obvious: Miami is asking Achane to do more and more. And that isn’t necessarily a good thing for a player whose greatest fantasy advantage is his explosiveness.

The 5.7 Yards Per Carry Problem

Here’s another number that should make fantasy managers nervous: 5.7.

That’s how many yards Achane averaged per carry in 2025. It was the best rushing average in the NFL among qualifying players.

But that’s exactly the problem. How much of Achane’s fantasy value is dependent on maintaining an extraordinary level of efficiency?

In 2024, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry. In 2025, he jumped to 5.7. His career average is 5.6. That’s outstanding.

But fantasy managers shouldn’t automatically assume that an elite efficiency number is going to remain elite forever. The easiest way for an elite running back to disappoint at a premium draft price isn’t necessarily for him to become bad. It’s for him to become merely very good.

If Achane goes from 5.7 yards per carry to 4.8 or 4.9, he could still be an excellent NFL running back. But if you’re drafting him as an elite fantasy running back, that difference matters.

The Receiving Production Is a Double-Edged Sword

Achane’s receiving ability is one of the biggest reasons to love him. It’s also one of the reasons to be cautious. In 2024, Achane caught 78 passes for 592 yards and six touchdowns. In 2025, he caught 67 passes for 488 yards and four touchdowns.

Those numbers are fantastic for a running back. But they also mean Achane’s fantasy value isn’t simply tied to his rushing production. A large part of his fantasy appeal comes from his ability to score points as a receiver.

That’s wonderful when everything is working. It’s dangerous when you’re paying an elite price and assuming everything will continue working.

Achane is moving from Tua Tagovailova, who had a 26.3% target rate to his running backs, to Malik Willis who has a 13.1% target rate to running backs.

New offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, historically only allocates about 16% of designed passes to the running back position, while last year Mike McDonald targeted running backs on almost 24% of pass plays.

With those numbers in mind, it’s hard to expect things will continue working the same.

And Then There’s Miami

This may be the biggest question of all. The Dolphins have undergone significant changes heading into 2026, including a new coaching staff, new receiving core and a very different offensive environment.

That matters. Fantasy football is about talent, but it’s also about opportunity. Achane’s talent isn’t in question.

The question is whether the new Miami offense will consistently create the same opportunities that made him so valuable.

The Dolphins are entering a transition period, and Achane is likely to remain the centerpiece of the offense. But being the centerpiece doesn’t automatically mean producing another 1,350-yard, 5.7-yard-per-carry season. In fact, that’s precisely why Achane is such an interesting Pig in a Poke.

The player is better than the situation may be.

The Verdict

There is a perfectly reasonable scenario where De’Von Achane finishes 2026 as a top-five fantasy running back.

He is talented enough. He’s explosive enough. And Miami is likely to continue giving him a huge role.

But that’s not the question. The question is whether you should pay the price required to acquire that outcome.

Achane’s 2025 season was spectacular. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry. He rushed for 1,350 yards. He caught 67 passes. He scored 12 touchdowns. And he did it in 16 games.

Those are exactly the numbers that make fantasy managers fall in love with a player. They’re also exactly the numbers that make the player expensive.

And that’s the Pig in a Poke.

You’re not buying De’Von Achane. You’re buying the expectation that De’Von Achane will continue being the best version of De’Von Achane.

Maybe he does. If so, whoever drafts him will look brilliant.

But if the rushing efficiency drops, the receiving work declines, the new Miami offense doesn’t produce as many scoring opportunities, or the workload finally catches up with him, you’re going to be asking yourself why you paid an elite price for a player who suddenly looks merely very good.

That’s the danger.

De’Von Achane is an elite talent. But at his current price, you’re betting on perfection. And when you’re drafting a running back at the top of the board, perfection is a very expensive thing to buy.