When Pigs Fly: Late-Round Fantasy Sleepers Who Could Smash Their ADP

Many a fantasy football league is won by having a late round grab far outperform their draft position.  Last year we saw Matthew Stafford, drafted on average as the 24th QB off the board, finish as the NFL MVP and a QB4 finish.  George Pickens finished as WR3 after being drafted as WR29.   Landing a top ten player at their position in the later rounds is fantasy gold.  So grab your coffee, your rankings, and perhaps a completely unjustified amount of confidence, because we’re about to uncover the players who could turn your late-round gamble into a season-winning jackpot.  Players that could be your MVP “when pigs fly” 

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff (DET).  In the early draft season, Jared Goff is continuing to be disrespected by being selected as QB16.  This aligns exactly with where he was being drafted last year:  QB16.  Goff finished last year as QB9.  In 2024 he was QB6.  2023: QB7.  See a pattern here?  He is in the same, highly explosive offense as last year with St. Brown, Williams, Gibbs and LaPorta.  The offensive line has been improved by adding Cade Mays (who allowed zero sacks last year) and drafting OT Blake Miller in the first round.  To top it off, Detroit has the easiest strength of schedule in 2026.  All of this adds up to another, easy top 10 finish that you can grab in the double digit rounds.  So in the early rounds pass on QB, load up on your WR and RB and then grab Goff and…

Kyler Murray (MIN).  Don’t laugh.  He has finished as a top-10 QB in every season that he’s played a full slate, including a QB3 finish his sophomore year.  Even in his injured years he never finished lower than QB12 in points per game.  So, as long as he stays healthy, he’s a starting QB in most fantasy leagues.  He’s averaging being drafted as QB17 this year.  Murray has, what is almost certainly, his best supporting cast with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, TJ Hockenson and one of the best pass catching backs in Aaron Jones.  None of his injuries are recurring (ankle, hamstring, ACL, foot), so he has about the same chance of getting injured as everyone else taken in front of him.  There is always the ghost of JJ McCarthy looming, but after two years we know that’s not really a thing.

RUNNING BACK

BAYSHUL TUTEN (JAC).  Trevor Etienne finished last year as RB13.  The Jaguars were willing to let him walk because they had Bayshul to step into the starting role.  Bayshul is a more explosive runner than Etienne (watch his output against the Bills in the playoffs) and is more dangerous in open space. While they did bring in Chris Rodriguez, he is more of a short yardage banger and will step into the role that Bayshul carried last year (he had upwards of 60% of the Jags short-yardage carries), allowing Tuten to take over Etienne’s role.  While Tuten’s ADP sits around RB25, he should easily replicate Etienne’s finish (if not improve upon it).  This positions him as a high-end RB2 or low end RB1 that you can get in the fifth or sixth round.

Jonathan Brooks (CAR).  While drafting a RB who has torn his ACL twice has risks, drafting Brooks in the 12th round (RB36) of your fantasy draft is a risk worth taking.  Brooks entered the league as the first RB off the board, even with his torn ACL, which is indicative of his talent.  He will have had more than 21 months to recover and rehab from the last tear and he was cleared by his surgeon for full participation in OTA’s in June.  Head coach Canales proved last year that he is willing to ride the “hot hand” when Chuba Hubbard lost his job to Rico Dowdle.  While Hubbard returns, Dowdle is now in Pittsburgh and the Panthers did not acquire any running backs to challenge for the job, indicating they are comfortable with Brooks’ health.  Brooks is a far more explosive running back than Hubbard and offers three-down talent, which Canales will ride.  He may open the year in a split with Hubbard, but by the bye week (Week 5), Brooks will be the man and getting a ‘man’ in the twelfth round is robbery.

WIDE RECEIVER

Josh Downs (IND).  Josh Downs finished as WR50 last year.  The man in front of him, Michael Pittman Jr., finished as WR18.  Pittman and his 111 targets are no longer with the Colts and they did not bring in any competition for looks.  With 88 targets last year, Downs was already a major part of the game plan but with Pittman gone his involvement will only increase.  Giving Downs a conservative estimate of absorbing 20% of Pittman’s vacated targets, that will give Downs 110 targets.  Every receiver last year that had 110 or more targets finished as a top-24WR.  Downs is currently being drafted as WR47 in the late 8th or early 9th round.  That is tremendous value for a top-24 WR.  

Wan’Dale Robinson (TEN).  Last year Wan’Dale was drafted around WR63.  He finished the year as WR14.  While that had a lot to do with him taking over the WR1 role after Malik Nabors went down, there were other factors that helped drive that.  Last year Wan’Dale had the sixth most deep targets (beyond 20 yards) in the league.  His 22 deep targets were up from only 5 the year before.  That dispelled the belief that he was only an underneath, low-ceiling chain mover.   And, for the second straight year, he hit 140 targets. Tennessee signed him to a 4 year, $70 million contract, where he will reunite with his Head Coach from New York, Brian Daboll, acting as his new Offensive Coordinator.  In his four years under Daboll, Wan’Dale averaged over 7 targets a game.  That puts him at an expected 112 targets, which again lands him as a top-24WR.  His competition for targets are rookie Carnell Tate, Calvin Ridley, who topped 30 yards in a game only once last year, and two recognized blocking TE’s (Daniel Bellinger and Gunnar Helm).  He currently is being drafted right around WR49 in the ninth round, so even if he doesn’t hit WR24 numbers he will far outperform his draft position.

TIGHT ENDS

Greg Dulcich (MIA).  This one is a no brainer.  Two of Miami’s TE’s last year, Darren Waller and Julian Hill, have moved on.  As have Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.  With those departures, there are over 300 targets up for grabs in Miami’s offense.  Waddle and Hill have been replaced by journeymen Tutu Atwell and Malik Washington, leaving Dulcich as the prime candidate to absorb a large portion of those targets.  Miami’s new offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, runs a Shanahan-style system that relies heavily on attacking the middle of the field which is where Dulcich thrives.  Last year, Dulcich was second in yards per route run amongst all TE and sixth in fantasy points per route run.  With a full season as a starter, in an offense with limited competition for targets, Dulcich should easily return, at a minimum, TE2 value.  As he’s being drafted as TE29, that is an easy selection before you start drafting your kicker and defense.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (WAS).  Despite catching fire in the final seven weeks of 2024 and putting up more points than any TE not named McBride, LaPorta or Kittle, Chig Okonkwo saw his output dip in 2025.  Tennessee implemented more two TE sets and Okonkwo ran many more, shorter depth routes to give rookie QB Cam Ward more outlets.  Okonkwo escaped that system and finds himself in Washington, where new Offensive Coordinator, David Blough, is installing a more under-center, heavy play action scheme that will open up lanes in the middle of the field.  About 20% of Jayden Daniels career throws have been targeted at TE’s and this drove TE Zach Ertz to a TE7 finish in 2024.  In 2025, Ertz averaged 11.2 points per game with Daniels under center, placing him in the top 5 in TE scoring (his numbers drastically dropped when Mariota was the QB).  Zach Ertz is gone, Daniels is healthy and the Commanders have no proven receivers behind Terry McLaurin, giving Chig a wide open runway.  He’s being drafted as TE18 in the twelfth or thirteenth round and should far outperform that value.